ASSESSMENT OF THE FAILURE PROBABILITY OF UPGRADED RUBBLE-MOUND BREAKWATERS

Nowadays, the existence of a huge number aging harbor defense structures and climate change-induced forcing variability highlight need for methodology able to deal with uncertainties which arise during design new above all upgraded structures. In present work, probabilistic based on Monte Carlo simulation technique assessment failure probability due independent modes factor change method inclusion effects is described, together its application emblematic case study Catania breakwater (Italy). The performances rubble-mound under future scenarios are assessed considering existing structure different upgrading options, include both raising wave wall addition extra armor blocks. Three novel indexes describing acceptability level as well rate growth coefficient variation along lifetime employed quantitatively asses climate, ultimate limit state collapse outer layer serviceability excessive mean overtopping discharge. obtained results demonstrate that such may give useful indication designers decision makers who upgrade change.